Monday, August 30, 2004

Are you ready for some.... hockey??

Hockey's back. Deal with it.

I know all you football fans are licking your chops for the start of the season. And the baseball pennant races are approaching. You want to sneak a peak at the U.S. Open. Even the RNC is a distraction.

So who's got time for hockey? Well, I do. So should you. Not just because hockey won't be around much longer (if you listen to the doomsday hypnotists who would like us to believe the NHL won't survive another lockout), but because this is a great tournament. The NHL's best players will gather to represent their countries after a full two months off, meaning they are fresh and ready to play at their dominant best.

It may be tough to top the thrilling 1996 World Cup, which was the best hockey anyone had seen since the 80s-era Canada Cups. But when you envision a Canadian line of Mario Lemieux, Jarome Iginla and Vincent Lecavalier, or an American defense pairing of Brian Leetch and Brian Rafalski, or a goalie rotation of Brodeur, Theodore, and Luongo, you know you're in for some exciting stuff.

Here's a look at the top teams and their chances to win:

USA: The U.S. won the World Cup in '96, the last time the tournament was held. But it's been eight long years since then. Absent are MVP goalie Mike Richter and defensive standouts Phil Housley and Derian Hatcher. The forwards group looks different, too. John Leclair has been replaced by Bill Guerin. Pat LaFontaine is out; Scott Gomez is in. Joel Otto is long gone; Jeff Halpern and Jason Blake will try to fill roles as fourth-liners.

The U.S. still has plenty of superstars, but its question marks in net are troubling. Will Robert Esche emerge as the next great American goaltender? Will Rick DiPietro, the former No. 1 pick get a shot? If the last World Cup is any indication, one of those two men will have to be spectacular for the U.S. to have a shot.

Canada: Eight years ago, it was a talented, young USA squad that beat the fearsome, grizzled Canadians. This time around, the roles are reversed. Dany Heatley, Jarome Iginla, Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards and Martin St. Louis inject a youthful enthusiasm to this year's Team Canada, which already has Mario Lemieux, Joe Sakic, and Joe Thornton up front. With a fortress named Brodeur in goal and the best defensive depth in the tournament, the Canucks have to be considered the odds-on favorites to win. Call it a huge upset if they aren't in the final.

Sweden: Still trying to recover after a shocking quarterfinal loss to Belarus in the 2002 Olympics. Goaltending is the biggest albatross here: Tommy Salo was in goal when Vladimir Kopat's 70-foot slapper gave Belarus the stunning Olympic win, and his backups are unproven. Salo will have to be the man for Sweden to make a run.

On the plus side, the Swedes play a speedy, puck-moving style that should make it easy for them to assimilate and at least achieve a semifinal appearance. Mats Sundin, Markus Naslund, and Peter Forsberg are the stars up front. Nicklas Lidstrom and Mattias Norstrom will anchor the defense. With the right mix of goaltending and scoring, this team would not be a long shot for a title.

Russia: The traditional favorites have struggled on an international level, mainly due to a lack of top goaltenders. This time around will be no different. Superstar Stanley Cup winner Nikolai Khabibulin quit over the team's "lack of prepartion," leaving minor leaguer Ilya Bryzgalov as the leading man in net. The forwards are a dangerous combination of skill and slickness; the defense nicely stocked with NHL-caliber stars and role players. But the Russians will have to catch fire and score in buckets or they may be in for a short tournament.

Czech Republic: They proved in the '98 Olympics that you can win with lots of goaltending and no offense. That may not necessarily be the motto this time around. The Czechs have Roman Cechmanek and Thomas Vokoun manning the pipes, both of whom could carry the team if they get hot. Up front, Jaromir Jagr, Patrik Elias, Milan Hejduk, and Martin Havlat lead a dangerous group of forwards. The defense is solid as usual, with Roman Hamrlik, Tomas Kaberle, and emerging power play quarterback Marek Zidlicky leading a diverse and talented blueline corps. Don't be surprised if they end up playing for a championship.

The rest: Finland's top star, Teemu Selanne, may be on the down side of his career. They'll need a strong effort from rising star Olli Jokinen and a herculean effort from Flames star goalie Miikaa Kiprusoff.

Slovakia has a scary group of forwards but no reliable goaltending option and a suspect defense.

Germany has NHL star Olie Kolzig in net, but lack the firepower up front to create havoc against the world's best.

Predictions:
1. Canada
2. Czech Republic
3. USA
4. Sweden
5. Finland
6. Russia
7. Slovakia
8. Germany

E-mail Mike at michael.casey@newsday.com.

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